Alternative Futures for Montana's State Park System

External Forces with Potential to Affect Montana State Parks

The pace of change in the United States and in Montana is increasing relentlessly, with important implications for all aspects of life, as well as Montana State Parks. There are a number of key factors with the potential to have important long-term impacts on Montana's State Parks, as listed and discussed below:

• Population Growth and Development: Montana's population is forecast to continue growing during the next twenty years, although not as rapidly as during the first half of the 1990s. This increasing population will put more pressure on the state's natural, cultural, and recreational resources.
• Changes in the Structure and Location of the Population: The population in both the United States as a whole and Montana in particular is becoming older, increasingly urban, and more culturally, ethnically, and racially diverse.
• Tourism: Montana is currently hosting more than eight million out-of-state visitors per year, a dramatic increase from ten years ago; non-resident visits are expected to continue increasing, albeit more slowly than in recent years. The natural, cultural, and recreational resources encompassed by state parks are a key reason people visit Montana, and are an essential part of the state economy; tourism is now the second largest industry in the state.
• Politics, Government Budgets, and Agency Staffing Levels: The current political mood at both the federal and state level makes it difficult to secure funding and staffing. During each legislative session, there are attempts to divert or eliminate state park funding sources. Several implications include an increasing need to rely on volunteers, a search for new funding sources, and a reluctance to aggressively take on new opportunities without adequate resources.
• Changes in Outdoor Recreation Technology and Use Patterns: The rate of technological change and innovation in outdoor recreation is increasing. Park managers must react with increasing speed to monitor new trends, evaluate their impacts, and adapt management accordingly.
• Socio-Cultural Changes: Changes in values, culture, and society have an impact on the recreational preferences of Americans and--ultimately--park managing agencies. Technological and socio-cultural changes can occur quickly, and interact together in ways that are difficult to predict.
• Economic Changes: Major Montana and U.S. economic changes will affect outdoor recreation in general and state park use in particular, in addition to impacting agency budgets. Yesterday's bull market is today's bear, with impacts that ripple through many areas of life.